编者按：劳伦斯·萨默斯是美国前财政部长。这是他在2020年11月“读懂中国”国际会议上讲话的节选。本篇仅代表专家观点，不代表本台观点。
It seems to me that your country's future, how it defines its greatness, your country's future in relation to my country is going to be important and determinative of the history of the 21st century. It also seems to me that crucial decisions are likely to be made in the next few years.
在我看来，中国的未来、中国如何定义伟大，以及未来的中美关系将非常重要，并决定21世纪的历史进程。我认为，一些对中美关系起到关键作用的决策将在未来几年内做出。
I can imagine some areas in which the United States prospers and China prospers. I can imagine scenarios in which the United States runs into great difficulty, and China runs into great difficulty and tension. I find it much harder to imagine scenarios in which the United States succeeds while China is failed, or where China succeeds, while the United States is failed.
我可以想象在一些领域里中美的发展都很繁荣。我可以想象在一些领域，美国遇到很大的困难，同时中国也遇到很大的困难和矛盾。但是，我很难想象“美国成功，中国却失败了”，或者“中国成功了，美国却失败了”的情景。
I have an image that I carry in my mind, and I think about the relationship between our two countries. It's of two individuals who have a long and tangled past with each other with some good memories, and some memories not so good, who find themselves in a lifeboat in a turbulent sea, a long way from shore. They did not really have the luxury of working through their mutual frustrations with each other. Neither can really afford to succeed in avenging their grievance with respect to the other. Instead, both need to row and to row in unison, if they are to make it through that turbulent sea, to the shore.
我的脑海中有这么一个画面，我认为非常适用于中美关系。中美两国就像两个人，这两个人交往多年，关系复杂。他们有一些美好的回忆，和一些糟糕的回忆。他们发现自己身处同一只救生艇上，在波涛汹涌的大海上漂泊。他们离海岸很远。这时候他们绝不能被自己对彼此的失望所左右。同时，他们也不能相互发泄不满。这无法解决问题。相反，双方都需要齐心协力划船，只有这样才有可能穿过汹涌的大海回到岸边。
It is not a matter of generosity. It's not even a matter of cooperative spirit. It is a matter of recognition of reality, the development of respect for mutual interest in a situation in which they find themselves. And that I would suggest is the situation of the United States and China. We need to be realistic. We have very different conceptions as nations, of how a society should be organized, of how a society should be governed. We are not going to resolve those differences in philosophy. Nations are gonna make their own choices as to how they organize their societies.
这不是大度的问题，甚至都算不上合作精神的问题。这只是认清现实的问题，是根据所处的形势，尊重彼此的共同利益。对目前的中美关系，我认为我们需要面对现实。中美对国家的认知是不同的，对社会应该如何组织、社会应该如何治理的看法也是不同的。我们无法解决理念上的分歧。各国应自己决定如何组织自己的社会。
To be sure, they're going to look to the examples we represent. And the success that each of us has as societies in delivering for our people is going to be enormously influential around the world. And in that sense, we are going to compete, compete importantly as examples. I believe that our system’s example is going to prevail in that competition, just as I would expect, that my Chinese friends, might believe in the superiority of your system and the example that it represents.
当然，他们会参考我们所代表的范例。中美两国社会在满足本国人民需求方面取得的成功在全球范围内都将极具影响力。从这一角度来说，我们将展开竞争，在树立榜样上展开重要的竞争。我相信，我们的社会制度将在这场竞争中胜出。而我也相信，我的中国朋友也会相信你们制度的优越性，以及它所树立的榜样。
So, we are going to be engaged in competition. We are also gonna have different views on specific issues, whether those specific issues involve islands in important parts of the Pacific Ocean, whether those issues involve what exactly should be done within an international institution. But like those two oarsmen in that boat, a long way from ashore. We are gonna have to find ways of working through those issues to find resolutions that are not the choice we would prefer if it was only up to us, or the choice that you would prefer if it was only up to you.
所以，我们将展开竞争。我们还将在具体问题上有不同的看法。这些具体问题或许涉及太平洋一些重要海域的岛屿问题，或许涉及某个国际组织具体的工作范畴。但是，正如汪洋大海中一叶扁舟上的两个船夫一样，我们必须找到合作解决这些问题的办法。但这些解决方法并不是某一个国家可以说了算的。
What are some of those issues? The long-term future of humanity is an issue with respect to how we treat the one planet that we have. What happens to the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is going to determine the way, in which our great grandchildren live. There is no question that we can't afford to continue to use coal and fossil fuels in the way that we have been using. What choices we and you make with respect to how we produce energy, how we consume on energy, how we structure our societies will be profoundly important.
这些问题具体有哪些？其中，事关人类长远未来的一个问题，就是我们如何对待我们的星球。二氧化碳和其他温室气体的排放将决定我们子孙后代的生活方式。毫无疑问，我们无法像现在这样继续使用煤炭以及其他化石燃料。中美在能源生产方式所作的选择，以及如何消费能源，还有我们的社会组织形式将具有深远的意义。
Your country’s commitment recently with respect to target dates for moving to zero emissions were very welcome. But of course, with respect to very long run goals, It’s important to know how we gonna be able to judge what kind of progress is being made. Our country is not distinguished itself on these issues in the last few years. But I am optimistic that in a new political environment, we will do much better.
中国最近对何时实现零排放作出了承诺，得到广泛认可。当然，就非常长远的目标而言，我们必须要知道如何衡量取得的进展。美国最近几年在这些问题上表现并不突出。但是，我对新的政治环境表示乐观，我们将做得更好。
COVID-19 pointed out, what is the major threat to humanity: pandemic disease. It is not the first major disease. Think about SARS, think about Ebola. And it will not be the last.
新冠肺炎疫情显现出大流行病才是人类的主要威胁。这并不是第一个重大疾病。想想“非典”，想想埃博拉。它也不会是最后一个。And it must be said, the progress the world is seems to be making towards finding a vaccine is extraordinary. And while your society has adjusted and taken very powerful steps towards putting COVID in the rear-view mirror, this is not been an easy period. We are gonna have to find ways of making sure that in the future, the kinds of conditions that can give rise to this disease and its leap-frogging from animals to humans are much more heavily regulated than they have been in the past.
必须要指出的是，世界在研发疫苗上取得了非常重要的进展。中国在控制疫情上采取了非常有力的调整举措，这段时间是相当艰难的。我们必须要找到办法，确保在未来导致这种疾病发生的条件及其从动物传播到人的情况得到更加严格的监管，比过去更加严格。
We are gonna need much more satisfactory commitments and absolute policies of information sharing globally at the first indication of possible risks from pandemic disease. And we are gonna have to learn from each other how, when pandemics starts, to slow its spread.
我们需要做出更加令人满意的承诺，需要建立更为彻底的全球信息共享。一旦出现大流行病传播的可能风险，我们就要采取行动。我们需要相互学习了解大流行病暴发的方式和时间，以减缓其传播。
There're also large economic challenges in this moment. China has done a remarkable job of restoring economic growth and progress after the difficulties of last winter. The restoration of economic growth has been slower in the United States and many other western countries. We are going to need to find ways of cooperating in the economic area, particularly with respect to developing countries, many of which face very large challenges, because they don't have the domestic resources to do the kinds of things that the United States and China have done.
目前，我们还面临严重的经济挑战。自去年那个艰难的冬天以来，中国在恢复经济增长和发展上已经取得了很大的成绩。在美国和其他西方国家，经济增长的恢复要更慢。我们需要找到在经济领域开展合作的方式，尤其是发展中国家，它们大多面临非常严峻的挑战。这些国家资源紧缺，无法采取中美两国所采取的那些措施。
Now that it is a rich and strong economy with great financial institutions, in the process of working through debt issues in emerging markets is another priority for the near future.
如今，中国经济实力雄厚，拥有庞大的金融机构，解决新兴市场的债务问题将是近期的另一重点。
Perhaps the most challenging set of issues in this post COVID-19 world involves technology, flows of data and artificial intelligence. There are going to need to be boundaries in separate spheres. Because so often, data and processing of data are sensitive information for national security. But there're also important areas of cooperation. If humanity is to be the master of artificial intelligence rather than being mastered by artificial intelligence, ff all societies are to have a chance to move forward, we are gonna need to be able to work through those issues.
也许后疫情世界的最大挑战与科技、数据流和人工智能有关。在这几个领域中，各国都需要有各自的边界，因为数据和数据处理往往涉及国家安全的敏感信息。但以上这些方面也是我们重点合作的领域。如果人类要掌控人工智能而不被人工智能所掌控，如果社会要进步的话，我们就需要找到解决这些问题的办法。
There are some who believe that the diplomacy between our two countries cannot work. I reject that view. Whether the issue is climate, whether the issue is the dramatic changes and narrowing of your current account surplus over the last decade, whether the issue is the substantially increasing the accessibility of your country and my country, to investment from the other country, at least until a few years ago, whether the issue is your enhanced participation in UN peacekeeping, or in the international financial institutions, There is much that has been accomplished through frank and diplomatic dialogue. We are gonna need much more of that in the years ahead.
有些人认为，外交在中美关系中已经不起作用了。我坚决反对这种观点。无论是气候问题，无论是在过去十年中国经常账户盈余的大幅变化和缩小，无论是中美两国市场大幅开放，吸引来自对方的投资，还是在几年以前，中国更多地参与联合国维和行动，在国际金融机构发挥更大的作用，通过坦诚的外交对话，我们取得了诸多的成绩。在今后几年，我们需要取得更多进步。
I believe that the any illusion that one of us is going to converse the other, or that one of us is going to destroy or vanquish the other, or that one of us is going to emerge uniquely supreme in the world is the enemy of cooperation. But mutual respect and mutual dialogue, and setting a course together in areas where history and practicality yoke us together on that lifeboat has to be the approach forward for China and United States in the post COVID-19 world.
有人幻想我们中有一方能够完全改变另一方，或者有一方会摧毁或征服另一方，或者有一方将在世界上取得独一无二的至高地位，这些想法都与合作背道而驰。在历史和现实让两国同舟共济时，相互尊重和对话并确定合作的道路，才是中美两国在后疫情世界的相处之道。
